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For a brief period, Donald Trump seemed to take a firm stance concerning Ukraine. After making warnings of "significant repercussions" last August should Putin persisted obstructing truce discussions, the former president ultimately enacted considerable sanctions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously impacted the Russian leader's ability to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, via his newly presented 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, which was developed by American and Russian officials lacking Ukraine's or EU input, the former president has apparently gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Invasion

Trump's plan would essentially favor Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while putting the country's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite strong declarations that "The nation's sovereignty will be affirmed", much of the proposal in reality compromise that essential sovereignty. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his real-estate experience, Trump continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere land disagreement, as if giving Putin a part of Ukrainian land will please the president. However, Putin's invasion is not simply about dominating a charred swath of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's apparent desire to eliminate it so it ceases to acts as an appealing example for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that Putin's growing dictatorship denies them.

Territorial Concessions

Although maintaining in status the currently split regions of these areas, Trump's plan would force the nation to surrender all of Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been unsuccessful to occupy in more than a decade of conflict, this surrender would render Ukraine's defenses severely undermined.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that are a key impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, giving Putin a clear route to the capital should he eventually opt to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Additionally, in a move that would facilitate additional fighting easier for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to reduce the numbers of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 troops to a limit of six hundred thousand. Notably, Trump's initiative imposes no equivalent constraints on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected government as Nazis, Trump's proposal declares: "Any radical belief system and actions must be rejected and banned." Apparently to highlight this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump imposes no requirement that Putin risk his regime by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative includes Russia pledge not to "enter bordering nations" and to "establish in regulation its position of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". But considering that Putin has breached equivalent accords in the history – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to recognize the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of seized areas in the Donbas to the government – why should anyone trust Putin on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on western protection assurances. Although the proposal warns of a "decisive unified military response" in case Russia restart its military campaign, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the specifics vary from vague to alarming. The plan would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from positioning troops on the nation's land, effectively preventing the security presence, likely led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Russia from restoring his diminished troops, rearming, and attacking again.

World Reaction

Another supplementary accord according to sources would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "major, planned, and sustained military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. Yet in contrast to a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable protection against future Russian aggression – the credibility of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to act with force to Putin's attacks, something they have {not