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Back in October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he became the fifth UK leader to occupy the role over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So what term captures what is occurring in France, now on its fifth premier in two years – three of them in the last ten months?

The latest prime minister, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s second-largest economy is trapped in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for decades – perhaps not since the start of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Essential context: ever since Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, France has had a divided assembly separated into three opposing factions – left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now almost twice the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are approaching.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the following day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for two more days in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to avoid elections. The president’s office announced the president would appoint a new prime minister two days later.

Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – some are still itching to topple it.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, like his predecessors, finished.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest pretty much every party bar the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Many think that cultural shift will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”