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Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|