Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.