🔗 Share this article

Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.