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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.